Reward Point vouchers spent most of 2025 trading above 2 million Pokeyen. Then Halloween arrived, and the market collapsed.
The 1,000 RP voucher, a staple commodity for players looking for quality of life and premium vanity items in the gift shop, hovered consistently around 2.1-2.2 million throughout early and mid-2025. Supply remained tight, with only a few hundred vouchers available on the GTL at any given time. The market appeared stable, predictable, and resistant to major volatility.
Late October changed everything.
Coinciding with the Halloween 2025 event, RP voucher prices crashed from over 2 million to approximately 1.5 million, a 25% decline in a matter of weeks. Supply surged from hundreds of listings to over 2,500 vouchers flooding the GTL simultaneously. The event that traders expected would drive demand and raise prices instead triggered a supply shock that decimated valuations.
The crash continued through Christmas. Rather than recovering during the holiday event (another anticipated demand spike), prices continued declining. By early 2026, RP vouchers stabilized around 1.7 million, roughly 20% below their 2025 average.
Now, with the Lunar New Year event launching later tonight, traders are questioning whether the traditional “event rally” thesis still holds.
The Halloween-Christmas precedent suggests a fundamental shift in RP market dynamics. Two consecutive major events failed to produce the price increases that conventional wisdom predicted. Something changed between mid-2025 and late 2025 that broke the correlation between event timing and RP demand.
Several theories explain the disconnect:
Increased RP vouchers through gameplay rewards, tournament participation, and promotional events may have expanded supply faster than cosmetic demand could absorb it. If players are earning more RP organically, they need to purchase fewer vouchers from the GTL.
Event cosmetic saturation could be reducing urgency. If recent events offered cosmetics that failed to capture widespread interest, demand for RP to purchase them would naturally decline regardless of event timing.
The introduction of alternative cosmetic acquisition methods, Lucky Red Envelopes during Lunar New Year, for example, may be pulling demand away from RP-purchased items toward event-specific currency systems.
Market psychology also plays a role. Once traders expect prices to fall during events rather than rise, selling pressure increases as holders liquidate before anticipated declines, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The late October supply surge, from hundreds to 2,500+ vouchers, suggests coordinated selling by large holders or mass liquidation by players who anticipated the Halloween event would mark a peak. Instead, the flood of supply overwhelmed whatever demand materialized, crashing prices and establishing a new lower equilibrium.
For the Lunar New Year event beginning tonight, the market appears positioned for continued stagnation or further decline rather than the rally some traders still anticipate. Current prices around 1.7 million already price in event demand, and if Halloween and Christmas patterns repeat, selling pressure from event participants looking to cash out RP earnings could push prices even lower.
The shift has implications beyond RP vouchers. If event timing no longer reliably predicts price movements for a commodity as fundamental as Reward Points, traditional trading strategies built around event calendars need reassessment. Markets adapt. What worked in 2024 and early 2025 may not work in 2026.
For players who simply want RP to buy cosmetics, the new dynamics work in their favor. Lower prices mean more purchasing power. For traders who bought high expecting event rallies, the past four months have been expensive lessons in changing market conditions.
Tonight’s Lunar New Year event will test whether the Halloween-Christmas pattern continues or if RP demand finally rebounds. Market observers will be watching closely.
But based on recent precedent, betting on an event-driven price increase looks less like strategy and more like wishful thinking.
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